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The Perplexity of Conduct of Population Censuses in Nigeria
Nigeria is a country with strong passion and desire for accurate census in the country for proper planning and budgeting among others but this idea has been marred by errors chiefly as a result of inadequate knowledge of regions, settlements and delineation of enumeration areas. Carrying out censuses in Nigeria will have been successful if the Nigerian government has not displayed antipathy for the use of remote-sensed sensor for the identification and demarcation of settlement boundaries, demarcation of enumeration areas. It is not clear why Nigeria, the giant of Africa is always ill at ease with the use of these reliable electronic devices.
This perhaps may have also defeated the aim of the national identity card which would have in way helped to a give a clearer estimate on the population figure of the country or at least reduced inflation of voters results during elections but this was not to be as the idea and project was deliberately dumped to give way to the return of status quo.
However, critics are of the opinion that these could have to do with the fear emanating from certain regions of the country that the use of this aid will thoroughly reveal the actual population figure of every region of the country. This idea may not be wrong after all considering that every region of the country considers population vital for revenue allocations. Taking census in Nigeria therefore is a sensitive national project.
The history of population censuses in Nigeria is typified by controversy. The 2006 population and housing census is not an exemption to what is described here. Indeed as pointed out in the editorial of Guardian Newspapers, Monday, January 22nd 2007 on the 2006 population and housing census in Nigeria expatiated on how the figure obtained by the Commission was twisted, distorted and interfered with. The idea of population census in Nigeria has been transformed to a complex form of competition between the South and North. The 2006 population census was plagued by widespread slipshod enumeration. The 2006 population census was that which witnessed many citizens coming out from their settlements or maybe hide-out-residence, begging to be counted even the enumerators were too few to do carry out the national assignment thus left in exhaustion.
Reports were also made of thousands of enumerators who walked out because they hadn’t been paid or upon the rumour that they may not be paid at all, an extension of the Nigerian factor, which though was not strange to a typical Nigerian. The 2006 population and housing census cannot be hastily concluded to be satisfactory or having wider coverage given the past history, circumstances and the constraints as the Commission would want us to believe hook, line and sinker. This was expected. The census figure of Lagos state which accrued from the Commission is a testimony of “a bad job” done by the Commission as the population of the state was deliberately reduced and made to appear like the South was set in competition against the North.
Although the Commission in its rejoinder titled “Advertorial: Re:-Census 2006: A Rejoinder to the Editorial Opinion of Guardian of Monday, 22nd January 2007” and published on its website maintained that Lagos has a land size of 3,345km2, is a city state and less than one-sixth of the land of Kano State (20,680km2) That it is never truism that all littoral areas are more densely populated as raised by the Commission is not doubtful but this is far from applicable to the case of Lagos and Kano States of Nigeria. This may certainly be so among the European countries but not Nigerian Lagos and Kano states. Even a layman ordinarily will realize that every family in Nigeria has one or more family member living Lagos.
Even with the relocation of the nation’s capital to Abuja, the country has not witnessed any population shift as claimed by the Commission. Nigerians are still of the opinion that innumerable opportunities still abound in Lagos and we know that violence in the north which continues to claim lives and properties is now forcing other ethnic groups to have a rethink. Most public servants working in Abuja were all forcefully mandated to do so and upon disengagement return to rejoin their families in Lagos. The fear of Sharia up north if for anything instilled fears in Youth Corpers causing many of them to have influence their postings. Till today, the fear of serving in the core north is the beginning of wisdom even the top officers of the Commission know this.
The National Population Census (NPC) established in Nigeria in 1988 has no visible reliable figure on ethnicity and religion which are very vital to a nation’s growth as result of which we have continued to rely on estimates. Exact number of languages, dialects, tribes and sub-ethnic groups are missing in the record of National Population Commission. We as a result of this development fail to get it right on whether any part of the family claiming to be a separate tribe or ethnic-group is truly so. Are the Ika people of Delta state separate ethnic-group from the Igbo? A well conducted population census would have answered this question. It is therefore particularly vexatious that even intelligence reports by the Federal Government of Nigeria rely on estimates.
If the first attempt at a nationwide census during 1952-53 yielded a total population figure of 31.6 million within the current boundaries of the country was considered an undercount for a number of reasons: apprehension that the census was related to tax collection, the 2006 population census is still an undercount for fear of ethnic tension. We witnessed nothing but an extension of passion and conflict in the Nigerian polity as a result of census. Conflicts arising from censuses are not new to Nigeria and Nigerians. We know that the result of census in Nigeria like election as Robert Lalasz puts it “decide the division of federal money and the balance of political power in a nation split almost evenly between a largely Muslim population in the North (which has traditionally controlled the government) and the coastal, more-urbanized, and largely Christian South, which regularly accuses northerner of rigging the census for political gain”
Lalasz continues:
“Perhaps more remarkable, many of the poorest developing countries (such as the Central African Republic, Niger, and Yemen) have been able to hold censuses…”
As noted, the National Population Census (NPC) should realize the importance of censuses and in this era of information technology and realize too that everything regarding technological growth begins with proper information and ends with accurate figures of population. And until censuses in this country enable us to know our actual figure on ethnicity, tribes, languages, dialects, religions, number of houses the much advertised plan by this government or any other government to make Nigeria one of the best 20 economies in the world come 2020 will remain a dream or call it a wish.
About the Author
Emeka Esogbue hails from Ibusa, Delta State, Nigeria. He is a Historian and International Relations gradute and Public Affairs commentator with lots of tremendous published and unpublished works.
emekaesogbue@yahoo.com
Current Population Trends - 2010 Census Conference














